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Market Overview

As the first quarter draws to a close, investors are eagerly awaiting key updates from Federal Reserve officials, alongside pivotal decisions from the Bank of England and developments in Australia in the forthcoming week.Here’s a comprehensive look at the current market landscape market insight from CFD Signals Telegram | TMS CFD.

Fed Focus and US Economic Data

The economic calendar for the upcoming week appears relatively subdued, with attention primarily directed towards several Federal Reserve policymakers set to deliver speeches. Last week, the central bank acknowledged a recent lack of progress on inflation, with Chair Jerome Powell expressing confidence in anticipated rate reductions later this year.

Scheduled speakers include New York Fed President John Williams, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman. Additionally, Friday will see the release of consumer confidence data, offering fresh insights into inflation expectations and the economic outlook, alongside the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Earnings Season and Small Cap Performance

As the first quarter earnings season nears its conclusion, investors are closely monitoring reports from major companies such as Walt Disney, Wynn Resorts, and Akamai Technologies. Notable small cap names reporting include Bellring Brands, Light & Wonder, and Permian Resources. Small cap stocks have faced challenges this year amid concerns over prolonged high interest rates, impacting companies reliant on debt financing and consumer spending.

Bank of England Decision

On Thursday, investors await the Bank of England’s rate statement, scrutinizing any signals regarding potential rate cuts in the coming months. While earlier discussions hinted at the possibility of rate reductions, recent economic data has painted a mixed picture, prompting market expectations to push back any rate cut to September. The BOE will also publish updated quarterly forecasts, with analysts closely observing any revisions to medium-term inflation forecasts.

Oil Price Movement

Last week witnessed a significant decline in oil prices, with Brent and WTI experiencing their steepest weekly losses in three months. Concerns over prolonged high borrowing costs and their potential impact on US economic growth were cited as contributing factors. Additionally, geopolitical risk premiums related to the Israel-Hamas conflict have diminished, with focus shifting towards potential US government actions to replenish strategic reserves.

RBA Meeting

The Reserve Bank of Australia is scheduled to hold its policy meeting on Tuesday, following hotter-than-expected first quarter inflation data and strong labor market figures. While no immediate changes are anticipated, market participants await Governor Michelle Bullock’s comments following the central bank’s softened tightening bias in March.

In conclusion, the market outlook for the week ahead remains influenced by key decisions from central banks, earnings reports, and global economic indicators, shaping investor sentiment and market dynamics.

GOLD – We see the GOLD create new highs in the first quarter as talks of an overvalued GOLD make things difficult for traders and investors, while others mention an oversold GOLD from where the price is stagnating. Other analysts also mention the potential for the drop to go further before a continuation. On our side of things, we view the potential for GOLD to test the demand zone at 2261.156 and 2227.561. However, we do not view the second quarter for GOLD prices to drop, but as a continuation of the bullish market. There may be chances for GOLD to stagnate in price, however, while the Middle East tensions continue to pester us from behind, we cannot rule out investor’s and CB’s confidence in the purchase of GOLD.

SILVER – In the SILVER market, we see the market go up, respecting the monthly range, and stay below 29.900. There is huge potential for the market to stagnate for the coming quarter, however, similar to GOLD, we cannot rule out the possibility of a sudden price hike correlated to tensions.

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